The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will report today, Tuesday, November 12, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October. Private consultants predict that this index will be around 3%, marking a figure not seen in three years, since May-June 2021.
In September, the CPI had already reached 3.5%, accumulating a 101.6% increase so far this year and standing at 209% year-on-year. The forecasts from the main consulting firms indicate an inflation of 3% for October and 2.9% for November.
Analysts predict a slight uptick in December (3%), followed by a downward trend in the following months: 3% in January, 2.8% in February, 2.8% in March, and 2.6% in April.
In the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA), the CPI accumulated an increase of 122.1% in the first ten months of 2024. It is expected that after a slight increase in December (3%), the values will decrease in the following months, reaching 2.5% in April.
On the other hand, inflation in CABA was 3.2% in October, slightly exceeding national inflation, mainly due to the greater weight of services in its weighting. Economist Aldo Abraham pointed out that in October, food prices increased below that percentage.
Economist Gabriel Rubinstein recently praised the economic management of Javier Milei and Luis Caputo, predicting very low monthly inflation, close to 1%. Despite some identified risks, Rubinstein suggested that this economic policy could lead to tremendous success in the coming months and quarters.
Overall, inflation is expected to remain at low levels, with a projected inflation in CABA of 3% for October and 2.9% for November, possibly marking the lowest inflation since 2021. The monthly variation in prices in October was driven by increases in clothing, restaurants, health, and education.
